Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Flu spreads. Just like always.

Daily Kos' flu expert DemfromCT: Flu Stories: Things To Expect

With the first reported US death (a 23 month old in Texas, being announced by the President), it is perhaps helpful to put into perspective that the very young and very old are at risk from flu. This is true every flu season, where there are approximately 36K deaths per year. This is influenza. Flu spreads, just as it does every flu season. and we will hear about more cases today. Expect it. Concern, not alarm.

There will be cases in new states (possibly CT, and possibly others), and cases in new countries (Germany). CDC updates once per day, so late cases from yesterday will be listed today. The numbers don't matter. It is going to go up before it goes down. Look for geographic spread.

You will hear about schools closing (individual schools with an involved case are supposed to consider closing as per CDC guidelines.) Closing schools is relatively easy. officials will be working on the more difficult part - when to re-open.

You will hear about WHO considering changing the pandemic phase (currently at 4)

link

You can expect new cases to be closer to where you are, if not today than over time. This is flu. Flu spreads, people get better, then it's over (but not gone.)

Remember, you are not powerless. In addition to hand washing, covering you cough, and staying home if you are ill, you can also start to think about what to do if your local school needs to close for a few days or a few weeks. And if someone gets sick with this mild flu, can you stay home and take care of them for 10-14 days without leaving the house? If you are going to stock up on sanitizer, consider getting basic supplies you'd need to do so.

Here is CDC guidance on home care. Here is a detailed manual on preparing for an interval of needing to stay home Influenza Pandemic Preparation and Response - A Citizen’s Guide version 1.5, foreword by David Heymann of WHO. Consider exploring Get Pandemic Ready for other ideas. Plan ahead, and remember that anything you don't need because this fizzles, you'll use with the next storm that cuts off power (make it all hazards, including some extra batteries.) This is an opportunity. HHS has been recommending two weeks of food and a plan for water for years (HHS: Individuals & Families Planning.)

For breaking news, see Flu Wiki Forum. For guidance, see CDC and your local health department.

I just thought I'd remind you.


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