Wednesday, June 16, 2010

A Lack of Fairy Dust

Obama's problem is that he can't make the oil spill better. so what exactly can he say that satisfies? He lacks the fairy dust to sprinkle on the wellhead to cap it and magically clean up the Gulf. Lacking fairy dust, or a magical wish pony, there is nothing that can be done that will make the situation suddenly better.

Think Progress: Exxon CEO: As an industry, ‘we are not well equipped’ to handle oil disasters.

ExxonMobil CEO Rex Tillerson told Congress we must do everything possible to prevent offshore drilling disasters, because once they occur, there is not any way to stop the damage. By admitting the unavoidable risk of catastrophe, Tillerson exploded the myths — promoted by the oil industry and right-wing supporters — that offshore drilling is “environmentally safe,” and that the industry can handle these disasters when they occur. Tillerson made the shocking admission that the industry is “not well equipped to prevent any and all damage” under questioning from Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), the chair of the oversight subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, during a hearing that featured top executives from the five largest private oil companies:

There will be impacts as we are seeing. We have never represented anything different than that. That’s why the emphasis is always on preventing these things from occurring because when they happen we are not well equipped to deal with them. And that’s just a fact of the enormity of what we’re dealing with.

Watch it:

The only fail-safe way to prevent oil drilling disasters, in fact, is to stop drilling for oil — in other words, “The only winning move is not to play.” This is yet another reason this nation needs an energy policy that puts a cap on oil pollution and ends our toxic addiction.

mistermix: The Speech

I have to agree with James Fallows that, overall, Obama’s Oval Office address was a wasted opportunity to leverage an event (the spill) that could be used to justify changing the status quo.

That said, the status quo has a powerful protector: Congress, specifically the Senate. We just saw the worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression and all we’re getting is ever more watered down legislation. Sticking it to the banks is a political no-brainer in an election year, yet it isn’t happening.

Similarly, setting aside climate change, the politics of lessening our dependence on foreign oil and creating our own high-tech energy industry are also no-brainers. We don’t need to defend global warming to justify our need to get off the oil teat via energy reform legislation. Yet we get this strange passage in Obama’s speech:

[...] Last year, the House of Representatives acted on these principles by passing a strong and comprehensive energy and climate bill –- a bill that finally makes clean energy the profitable kind of energy for America’s businesses.


Now, there are costs associated with this transition. And there are some who believe that we can’t afford those costs right now. I say we can’t afford not to change how we produce and use energy -– because the long-term costs to our economy, our national security, and our environment are far greater.


So I’m happy to look at other ideas and approaches from either party -– as long they seriously tackle our addiction to fossil fuels.[...]

There’s not even a call for the Senate to take up the legislation. The bitter political reality is that Obama doesn’t have enough confidence in the Senate’s ability to pass anything to even suggest that they try. That’s why he’s specific on the small things the Executive Branch can do (restitution and MMS reform), and mushy on the big changes needed to keep us from drilling at 20,000 feet or propping up despots on the other side of the earth.

  • from the comments:

    Quiddity

    What Obama should have said:

    Even though large tracts of the Gulf Coast and many old and famous fisheries have fallen into the grip of the oily sludge and all the odious hydrocarbons of crude oil, we shall not flag or fail.
    We shall go on to the end, we shall fight to protect the Louisiana Bayou,
    we shall fight on the ocean drilling platforms,
    we shall fight on the beaches,
    we shall fight to prevent the oil from landing on our shores,
    we shall fight for the wetlands,
    we shall never surrender.
    ReplyReply
    7

    Linda Featheringill

    Ah dear.

    I thought it was good speech. Not an enjoyable one, but a good one.

    Obama didn’t promise anything? Perhaps because he isn’t sure how much he can deliver.

    He didn’t say that everything will be all right? Perhaps because it won’t.

    He didn’t threaten to go drop bombs on some other nation? Perhaps because that wouldn’t do any good.

    The main problem with the speech was its honesty. We have a big problem. It is going to get worse before it gets better. It is going to cost a BUNDLE.

    Reality sucks.

Kurtz (TPM): No Easy Way Out

When President Obama declared from the Oval Office that the Deepwater Horizon blowout "is the worst environmental disaster America has ever faced," he was giving this crisis historic stature and perhaps also missing the point (watch it here).

The Gulf is not a pristine environment. If your only exposure to the Gulf has been on the beaches of Florida, you might convince yourself that the Gulf is a deep blue aquatic wilderness. But as you travel west, the beaches give way to the marshes of the Mississippi delta, which are crisscrossed by oil and gas pipelines, manmade canals, and flood control levees. Further west, in Texas, the beaches reemerge, but shipping canals, giant refineries, and petrochemical factories persist. Over the horizon, in the Gulf itself, thousands of oil and gas wells pump night and day.

I grew up on the Louisiana coast. I've fished in the deep waters of the Gulf for red snapper and in its shallow bays for speckled trout. I've gone crabbing in its marshes. I've been through fierce hurricanes, and I've seen it as smooth and unruffled as a sheltered pond. My kids dipped their toes in the ocean for the first time there.

The Deepwater Horizon disaster is as organic a product of human processes in the Gulf as Hurricane Katrina was a product of natural processes. Shipping, flood control, and natural resource extraction have taken a nearly century-long toll on the coast. The Gulf has been abused, exploited, fouled and taken for granted for so long and with such consistency that the shock and horror over this one incident becomes in its own way a salve for our consciences.

Into this complicated landscape wades President Obama, the national political establishment, and the political press, little better equipped to understand it now than they were when Katrina hit. The President said that the spill wasn't like the other disasters we face, it's more like an "epidemic." He was closer to the truth when he referred to "our addiction to fossil fuels." The spill is more like the ruination an alcoholic leaves in his wake. You can clean up the mess, try to prevent it from happening again, and hope for the best. But as long as he's still drinking, disaster looms.

Lewis (Dkos): Oil and Gas Investor's Executive of the Year

Ryan Grim notes that legal responsibility for the Gulf oil disaster falls on four corporations: BP, Transocean, MOEX Offshore and Anadarko Corporation. They were asked to testify before the Senate today. The CEOs of two of them said they have scheduling conflicts.

Anadarko CEO James T. Hackett, however, does have time this week to be in Houston to accept Oil and Gas Investor's Executive of the Year award, handed out Tuesday.

"Last year this leading Houston-based company generated a 68 percent return to shareholders, while cutting costs and spending during the downturn," reads the announcement of Hackett's award. Cost cutting may have led to significant shareholder returns, but it also is believed to have contributed to the fatal explosion and blowout of the well.

And that pretty well sums up the industry. The man who runs one of the companies that helped cause the worst environmental disaster in American history is being rewarded by his industry. As its Executive of the Year. For the very same cost-cutting that likely caused the disaster. They are what they are.

DougJ: Having it both ways

The latest trend in Village philosophizing seems to be “hey, I’m not one of those shallow types that thinks Obama needs to pound the podium, but let me offer my own superficial, content-free analysis of things”. This David Ignatius piece is an instant classic along those lines:

Given all the idiotic advice President Obama has gotten about what to do about the BP oil spill, I thought his Oval Office address Tuesday night had it about right. Call to arms. Three-point plan. End our energy addiction. God bless America.

I don’t know what it means to look “presidential,” but I thought it helped that Obama looked pretty stressed and serious tonight.

[.....]

I liked him better Tuesday night than I have in a while—tired, beat-up politically, but not playing to the crowd with easy put-downs of BP CEO Tony Hayward or profit-mongering Big Oil. There’s a glimmer of real leadership there, but not yet the bright beam.

Leadership is about looking stressed but serious, beat-up but not resorting to easy put downs. If George W. Bush had just looked more stressed but serious, Iraq would have gone just fine. And God forbid anyone saying anything mean about Tony.

What on earth could be purpose of these kinds of analyses? Why do people write them?

Jay Ackroyd: Partners
Deep in what only can be called the ideology of Washington, DC is the idea that the government's role with respect to large corporations is as a partner. Regulatory agencies do not demand compliance with the law. Rather they work with their business partners in some kind of mutual interest. Glenzilla:
MR. GREGORY: But this is a straightforward question. If you are in partnership with somebody -- and make no mistake, the government is in partnership with BP to get this problem solved -- does the, does the president of the United States trust the man on the other end who is leading this operation?

MR. AXELROD: Our, our mission here is to hold them accountable in, in every appropriate way, and that is what we're going to do. I, I'm not -- I don't consider them a, a, a partner, I don't consider them -- they're not social friends, they're not -- I'm not looking to make judgments about their soul. I just want to make sure that they do what they're required to do.
While Axelrod is pushing back against this idea here, much of our difficulties to date stem directly from the idea that the way to fix problems is to partner up with industry--the NSA with the telcos, HHS with the insurance and drug companies, MMS with the oil companies, Treasury and the banksters--to deliver "private sector" solutions. Of course, they say "free market," but this kind of thing is pretty much the opposite of a free market, and is, just by the way, a distance away from anyone would generally mean by "liberal" or "progressive." Large profit-making entities do not have the public interest at heart; they (at best) care about their shareholders' dividends. The notion that the relationship between them and the government should be accommodating, rather than adversarial is quite a radical shift away from the views of FDR or LBJ.

But this notion runs deep. It is so strong in Dancin' Dave that it is like a fish's awareness of water. He seems to be literally unable to understand what Axelrod means by accountability.
DougJ: First boyfriend

Daniel Gross on Obama’s speech:

President Obama’s Oval Office speech about the Gulf oil spill was almost enough to make you miss President George W. Bush. Maybe not the actual presidency of George W. Bush, but at least the platonic ideal of the presidency of George W. Bush—the MBA president, the chief executive as CEO.

A few weeks ago Atrios wrote:

There was something truly weird about the relationship between the DC press and the Bush administration that I never could quite understand. It’s like he was their president somehow, the one they grew up with before he regenerated into that weird guy with the funny name. And they keep rooting for his return. I don’t think the press is especially hostile to Obama, though they inevitably run with whatever right wing talking point comes through the puke funnel that day, but Bush…he was the one, their first boyfriend or something.

At the time, I thought he and others were overdoing it about the media love for Dubya. But missing the “the Platonic ideal” of the “MBA president”, dear FSM, it is a schoolgirl crush.

Sargent: New meme: Spill proves Obama isn't manly enough

So here's where we're headed next. The subtext of some of the criticism in the wake of last night's speech is subtle, but unmistakable: Obama's inability to halt the spill calls his manhood into question.

Here, for instance, is The Post's Michael Gerson:

The setting of the Oval Office creates an expectation of decisive executive action. It recalls memories of President Dwight Eisenhower dispatching federal troops to Little Rock or President John F. Kennedy announcing the naval "quarantine" of Cuba. This speech will not be confused with those precedents. Obama urges others to take action, kibitzes with corporate executives, shifts some government personnel and signals the start of a review process. A crisis is met with a study. The action verbs in this speech have somehow gone missing. It is all rather limp and weak.

Gerson, of course, worked for a president who swaggered decisively off the stage of history with some of the limpest approval ratings ever.

And here's Maureen Dowd, cattily mocking Obama because he recently acknowledged to Gulf residents that there are limits to his own power, which Dowd characterizes as so much whining:

"Even though I'm president of the United States, my power is not limitless," Obama, who has forced himself to ingest a load of gulf crab cakes, shrimp and crawfish tails, whinged to Grand Isle, La., residents on Friday. "So I can't dive down there and plug the hole. I can't suck it up with a straw."

See, Obama had to force himself to eat a plate of food in order to prove his heartiness. Get it?

Dowd's obsession with Obama's appetite (recall that she mocked him during the campaign for making a meal out of Nicorette) is unsettling enough on its own. But her characterization of this incident is instructive in another way.

If you watch video of the episode, you can clearly see that Obama is acknowledging the limits of his own power in a regretful way. He's apologizing to Gulf residents by candidly admitting that the situation is out of his control. But Dowd is subtly distorting the episode in order to suggest he's whining about how unfair it all is -- in order to suggest that he's a wuss. Sound familar?

The notion that the public sees macho swagger as "strength" and instinctively prefers it to a more cerebral, restrained and calm approach to leadership is pure fiction. Bush's swagger did nothing to rescue him from historic unpopularity. The McCain campaign not-so-subtly cast the 2008 race as a macho war hero versus a puffed up dandy (see Celebrity, TV ad), and we all know how that turned out.

Polls have shown again and again that majorities regards Obama as a "strong" leader, and I'm willing to bet Gerson and Dowd a pair of Plum Line lava lamps that the next three major national polls will all show the same.

Those polls will say this despite the fact that majorities also disappprove of his handling of the spill. That's because the public -- for very good reason -- is taking issue with the substance of his response, not the theatrics of it.

Regardless, you haven't heard the last of this line, I'm telllin' ya.
  • from the comments:

    Haven't heard the last of it? So-called "progressives" on liberal blogs have been pushing this meme for MONTHS.

    "Obama doesn't have the balls."
    "Obama is weak."
    "Obama is in bed with BP."
    "Obama bent over for BP/Tony Hayward."

    Let's not pretend this is some wingnut media meme that Republicans are pushing. This has been pushed by the extremes on the right and the left for months. The PUMAs are pissed and this is payback.

    Posted by: queenofbabble

DemfromCT (Dkos): Your Abbreviated Pundit Round-up

Wednesday oil spill edition.

NY Times:

Fifty-six days, millions of gallons of oil and countless hours of cable television second-guessing later, President Obama finally addressed the nation from the Oval Office on Tuesday night to declare war.

His enemies were oil industry lobbyists and corrupt regulators, foreign energy suppliers and conservative policy makers, and a stubborn gushing well at the bottom of the sea. And ultimately, he was fighting his own powerlessness, as a president castigated for failing to stop the nation’s worst-ever oil spill tried to turn disaster into opportunity.

Maureen Dowd:

Once more on Tuesday night, we were back to back-against-the-wall time. The president went for his fourth-quarter, Michael Jordan, down-to-the-wire, thrill shot in the Oval Office, his first such dramatic address to a nation sick about the slick.

You know the president is drowning — in oil this time — when he uses the Oval Office. And do words really matter when the picture of oil gushing out of the well continues to fill the screen?

Susan Page:

For President Obama, the Oval Office address Tuesday night was about more than the oil spill.

His ability to project more command, competency and compassion in response to the crisis in the Gulf of Mexico— and the eventual success of the administration's actions — will have repercussions for his ability to do anything else, from pushing legislation on energy and jobs to holding down Democratic losses in the midterm elections.

EJ Dionne:

The two philosophical points he made will, I suspect, be heard again and again this campaign year. When he criticized the mess at the Minerals Management Service, he said this: "Over the last decade, this agency has become emblematic of a failed philosophy that views all regulation with hostility -- a philosophy that says corporations should be allowed to play by their own rules and police themselves. At this agency, industry insiders were put in charge of industry oversight. Oil companies showered regulators with gifts and favors, and were essentially allowed to conduct their own safety inspections and write their own regulations."

This is an argument that needs to be pressed with some consistency. Democratic capitalism works because of the "democratic" part -- the use of government to achieve things capitalism can’t achieve on its own. There are some values the market doesn’t take into account and some valuable goods -- the environment in the gulf, for example -- that the market doesn’t price correctly, if at all.

Katrina vanden Heuvel:

Yet what's happening on the left isn't the equivalent of the anti-incumbent anger on the right. Most progressives support Obama and want his agenda to succeed. And although Pelosi may have been bushwacked by a disability-rights group last week, she was celebrated by most of the conference attendees for her ability to forge a majority for hard votes.

At the same time, progressives have come to a realization. What we see, some 500 days into the Obama administration, is a president obstructed by a partisan Republican opposition, powerful entrenched corporate interests, and a minority of corrupt or conservative Democrats. The thinking is that if progressives organize independently and forge smart coalitions, building a mass movement for reform with a moral compass that can transcend left-right divisions, we may be able to push Obama beyond the limits of his own politics, overcome the timid incrementalism of the establishment Democratic Party and counter the forces of money and power that are true obstacles to change. As Arianna Huffington has said, "Hope is not enough. . . . We need a 'Hope 2.0' that depends not on what President Obama or other politicians say or do but on what we as progressives do."

Local opinion (Colorado):

It seems like everyone has their own idea about what should be done to fix the oil spill, and everyone has an opinion about how it's being handled so far.

Most people KJCT News 8 spoke with say they think the president is handling the situation about as best as he can. But almost everyone says the address should have happened much sooner.

Local opinion (Florida):

"We should have been fighting this thing 10 fold 3 months ago. The National Guard should have been called out months ago. The things that aren't working the booms should have been changed. The technology, he says he has called on all these scientists, good I'm glad, but it doesn't seem like there is a lot of teamwork," one man said.

Local opinion (Louisiana):

We went through Katrina. That was fine. We rebuilt," he said. "Now this -- this is not natural and it was done by BP."

Cepriano said he was unhappy with the government response, regardless of the president's tougher tone.

"Nothing's organized. None whatsoever ... they've got this really messed up," he said.

Obama delivered the speech after a tour of the Gulf Coast. An AP-GfK opinion polled showed 48 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the crisis, up 15 percentage points from a month ago. The spill is into its eight week.

Yglesias: Obama Punts on Climate

The most important thing to keep in mind about the sort of “major” presidential speech we saw last night is that they don’t matter. At all. They don’t move votes in Congress. They don’t move public opinion. The bully pulpit method of governance doesn’t work. And that’s about the best I can say about Obama’s speech—even if it had been much better, it wouldn’t have done much good.

But as long as someone speaks in public, he’s inviting you to analyze his words. And on that score, the evaluation just can’t be very good. I understand that the Senate isn’t going to pass a comprehensive climate/energy plan that puts a price on carbon. I get that. Nevertheless, the right thing to do is to pass such a bill. A discussion of energy policy should say so. A discussion of energy policy should mention climate change. There’s more to be said about the benefits of energy reform than its role in averting climate catastrophe. And there’s more to improved energy policy than carbon pricing. But climate change is really important. And putting a price on carbon is really key to getting a handle on it. If you’re talking about these issues, you should say that stuff. And Obama didn’t.

Yesterday, the EPA completed its analysis of the American Power Act and found that it’s a highly affordable way to reduce emissions from greenhouse gasses. That would have been worth mentioning. If you’re not going to talk about this stuff, then why talk? There’s nothing wrong with settling for less than you wanted, but it’s downright weird to not even discuss what really needs to be done.

Benen: THE NATION'S LEADING EXPERT ON ENERGY POLICY
In September 2008, just eight weeks before presidential election, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) boasted that former half-term Gov. Sarah Palin (R) "knows more about energy [policy] than probably anyone else in the United States of America." He was, for the record, entirely serious.

Of course, now that energy policy is up front and center, and the nation struggles with an environmental catastrophe, it's a good thing we can utilize Palin's expertise.

Last night on Fox News, Bill O'Reilly asked Palin if she knows how to stop the oil gushing into the Gulf. Instead of answering, she said, "Well, what the federal government should have done was accept the assistance of foreign countries, of entrepreneurial Americans who have had solutions they wanted presented.... The Dutch, they are known, and the Norwegian, they are known for dikes, for cleaning up water, and dealing with spills. They offered to help. And yet, no, they too, with the proverbial, can't even get a phone call back."

I'd swear she's getting dumber.

For the record, the government did accept the assistance of foreign countries, including skimmers and boom from Mexico, three sets of Koseq sweeping arms from the Dutch, and eight Norwegian skimming systems.

Palin is whining that the administration didn't do what the administration has already done.

Palin added that that "we haven't heard" that stopping the leak is the president's "top priority." Palin must not have been listening.

Where would be without this visionary who knows more about energy policy than probably anyone else in the United States of America?

Kleefeld (TPM): Bachmann Blasts 'Redistribution Of Wealth' Escrow Fund, Says BP Shouldn't Be 'Chumps'

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) is emerging as a fierce critic of the Obama administration's proposed escrow fund to handle damage claims against BP.

The Minnesota Independent reports that Bachmann spoke Tuesday to the Heritage Foundation, and badmouthed the idea. "The president just called for creating a fund that would be administered by outsiders, which would be more of a redistribution-of-wealth fund," said Bachmann. "And now it appears like we'll be looking at one more gateway for more government control, more money to government."

Also, David Weigel reports that Bachmann also said: "They have to lift the liability cap. But if I was the head of BP, I would let the signal get out there -- 'We're not going to be chumps, and we're not going to be fleeced.' And they shouldn't be. They shouldn't have to be fleeced and make chumps to have to pay for perpetual unemployment and all the rest -- they've got to be legitimate claims."

Tuesday, June 15, 2010

I see crazy people

DougJ :It can’t happen here

Bruce Bartlett brings up an interesting nightmare scenario for a Republican-controlled Congress:

To be sure, the debt limit has always been raised in time to prevent a default, although Treasury sometimes had to push the limits of the law to move money around to pay the government’s bills. However, I believe the game has changed because Republicans have become extremely bold in using the filibuster to make it extraordinarily difficult to pass any major legislation without at least 60 votes in the Senate.

Furthermore, a growing number of conservatives have suggested that default on the debt wouldn’t be such a bad thing. It is often said that default would lead to an instantaneous balanced budget because no one would lend to the U.S. government ever again. Therefore, spending would have to be cut to the level of current revenues.

Writing in Forbes last month, the Cato Institute’s John Tamny was enthusiastic about the prospects of default. Said Tamny, “It’s time we learn to love the idea of a U.S. default . . . For Americans to worry about a debt default is like the parent of a heroin addict fearing that his dealers will cease feeding the addiction.”

I don’t think that it’s likely that a Republican Congress would actually force a default, but they could certainly use the threat of forcing one to get their way on other matters. Serious economic minds like Charles Lane and Robert Samuelson would likely cheer them on as they held the country hostage.


Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

digby: Pat Robertson Gives Marital Advice
Ladies, just so you know, if your man is stepping out it's because you're a bitch and you're just not attractive enough.

TERRY MEEUWSEN (co-host): Pat, this is from Anne who says, "My husband has always been a flirt and loves to talk with other women he finds attractive. He says he would never cheat on me but his actions are starting to get to me. What should I do?

PAT ROBERTSON: Anne, first thing is you need to make yourself as attractive as possible and don't hassle him about it. And why is he doing this? Well, he's doing it because he wants affirmation that he is still a man, that he is attractive -- and he gets an affirmation of himself. That means he's got an inferiority complex that's coming out. And he's not gonna cheat on you. He's just playing.

But you need to not drive him away or start hassling and hounding on him, but make yourself as beautiful as you can, as fun as you can, and say "let's go out here, let's go there, let's go to the other thing." And be sure to give him blow jobs on command.
Ok I made up the last thing --- but it's certainly implied.

I think what shocked me most about this is that Pat Robertson is still alive.
Benen: STEVE KING, ON THE SIDE THAT FAVORS THE DUMB PERSON
If only Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) were a White House correspondent, he might be forced to resign over ugly rhetoric like this.

During an appearance on G. Gordon Liddy's radio show this morning to discuss Arizona's immigration law, King suggested President Barack Obama was a racist and "favors the black person" while carrying out his presidential duties.

King also said that he was "offended" by both Obama and Attorney General Eric Holder.

"When you look at this administration, I'm offended by Eric Holder and the president also, their posture. It looks like Eric Holder said that white people in America are cowards when it comes to race," said King. "And I don't know what the basis of that is but I'm not a coward when it comes to that and I'm happy to talk about these things and I think we should."

King added: "But the president has demonstrated that he has a default mechanism in him that breaks down the side of race -- on the side that favors the black person."

As a factual matter, King's race-baiting is just absurd. Looking over the president's staff, cabinet, appointments, and policies, there's simply nothing to suggest Obama discriminates against those who aren't black. King's odious attacks are the result of paranoia. (If the right-wing Iowan is really looking for political players motivated in part by race, he may want to talk to his Tea Party pals.)

It's also worth noting that King misquoted Holder in order to criticize him.

But of particular interest here is the way in which King was projecting during his tirade. Adam Serwer explained, "This is of course, the same Steve King who has defended the Confederate flag, advocated for racial profiling, referred to the Congressional Black and Hispanic Caucuses as 'separatist groups,' and said that people in the Middle East would be 'dancing in the streets' if Obama was elected because of his middle name. He was also the only -- repeat -- only congressman to vote against recognizing the contributions of slaves in building the U.S. Capitol, where King now spends his time spewing this kind of nonsense."

Someone here has "a default mechanism in him that breaks down the side of race," but I'll give you a hint: it's not the president.


Booman: The Western Iowa Strategy
What is it with than name 'Steve King' and horror shows? Of course, it's the political Steve that I'm concerned with here. He's trying to develop what we might call the 'Western Iowa Strategy.'

Rep. Steve King (R-Iowa) leveled a somewhat startling charge against President Barack Obama on Monday, saying the president instinctively "favors the black person."

King made the comments during an appearance on the G. Gordon Liddy radio show.

"When you look at this administration, I'm offended by Eric Holder and the president, also, their posture," King said, as captured by Media Matters.

That must refer to their shuck n jive posture.

"It looks like Eric Holder said that white people in America are cowards when it comes to race. And I don't know what the basis of that is, but I'm not a coward when it comes to that, and I'm happy to talk about these things and I think we should. But the president has demonstrated that he has a default mechanism in him that breaks down the side of race — on the side that favors the black person."

It's true that Rep. King is not a coward when it comes to race. He's totally upfront about how much black people in power 'offend' him. And he did it on G. Gordon Liddy's radio program. You probably know Liddy from his involvement in the Watergate break-in. You probably don't know that he worshipped Hitler as a child and chose his wife because of her teutonic characteristics.

When he listened to Hitler on the radio, it "made me feel a strength inside I had never known before," he explains. "Hitler's sheer animal confidence and power of will [entranced me]. He sent an electric current through my body."

My father is from Iowa. It's not a place known for heated racial politics. Most Iowans I've met are painfully polite and well-mannered. I don't understand why Steve King has a constituency for this kind of gutter politics. But this is a concerted effort to convince ordinary white voters that the president and members of his administration are biased against them and are always looking to side with black people. Most of the time, these kind of messages are a bit more subtle. Rep. King is explicit. I know his district is very religious and culturally conservative, but I don't think this is how they want their congressman to behave.

And, I thought about it. I can't point my finger to anything the president has done that would merit the criticism. It's pure fantasyland.

  • from the comments: Re: The Western Iowa Strategy (none / 0)
    It's not what the President has done, it's what he is. He embodies the "people not like us" narrative. It's not that Steve King's supporters are racists (in their own minds), rather that they can be made to fear that the "other" side are. Painfully polite manners and painfully paranoid politics are not mutually exclusive characteristics.

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Monday, June 14, 2010

Learning all the wrong lessons

John Cole: What He Said

Sometimes I can’t improve on a comment:

This is rich: an op-ed in today’s Times advises the Obama administration to be less partisan and more ethical in its political dealings. It’s written by Richard Painter, chief White House ethics lawyer for the Bush administration from 2005 to 2007.

I’m guessing that was a part time job.

Rimshot.

Marshall: Obama Oddly Unpopular in Former Slave States

Roll Call has a good article (sub.req.) today about the role of former President Bill Clinton in the 2010 election. The gist of the piece is that Clinton is turning out to be an important asset in this cycle since there are many parts of the country where he can go and campaign effectively where Barack Obama just can't. I talked to one candidate running in a race below the Mason-Dixon line a while back. And this person told me that where he's running, outside of the few places, Barack Obama is just toxic. Not surprising. But it was bracing to hear it from the candidate's own mouth.

What strikes me about the Roll Call article is that there's not a single mention in the piece that Barack Obama is ... well, black.

I don't want to make it like Obama's unpopularity in a lot of parts of the South is solely or even mainly tied to his race. I don't believe that. Not just because I don't want to paint with too broad or over-stating a brush. But there is actually some very relevant evidence to the contrary. If you go back to 1994 and 1995 you'll remember how Bill Clinton had a very similar geographical spread to his dire unpopularity. In a sense, he became kind of black in the middle years of his presidency, notwithstanding the fact that his political appeal in 1991-92 was precisely that he was a white Southerner with all the right cultural inflections. Some of us tend to forget that this is some of what Toni Morrison meant when she famously called Clinton America's 'first black president'.

All that being said though, c'mon ... A big part of the importance of Bill Clinton this year is that he can slip into parts of the country where President Obama is a political liability and give Democrats some presidential star power. Those places are predominantly in the South or to a degree even more in the border states. You simply can't explain this phenomenon without taking the President's race into serious account. The truth is that it's not either/or but additive. The layers of politics and race are reinforcing. But it's there.


Benen: THE WRONG LESSONS LEARNED
Yesterday, on "Fox News Sunday," Bill Kristol made a comment about the BP oil spill disaster that seems pretty common of late, but which seems relatively backwards to me.

The Weekly Standard editor suggested there was no reason to hold President Obama "personally accountable" for the disaster and spill fallout, but Kristol nevertheless sees this as "a blow" to "Obamaism." He added, "I mean, it's a blow to the notion that the federal government, a notion that he's deeply identified with, is sort of omnipotent."

If this seems kind of familiar, it's because George Will said something very similar two weeks ago. The president, Will said, is "being unfairly blamed," but since Obama told the country that government could solve problems, and the government hasn't solved this problem, Will said the lesson of the disaster is that government isn't really to be trusted after all.

At face value, the argument is baseless, to the extent that conservative pundits are beating a straw man -- neither President Obama nor anyone else in Democratic politics has ever argued that the federal government is "sort of omnipotent."

But more importantly, while Kristol, Will, and others on the right see this entire ordeal as a vindication of their political philosophy, I tend to think they have it backwards. After all, what does the conservative worldview tout as a matter of course? That nearly every area of public policy should feature less government, more private enterprise, fewer regulations, and less federal oversight.

And in this case, we tried that. It was the guiding principle of the last decade, when oil companies were effectively told they could do as they pleased, without pesky federal mandates and oversight. The disaster in the Gulf of Mexico isn't the result of Kristol's vision of "Obamaism" gone awry; it's the opposite -- the idea that if we just get government out of the way, everything will be fine looks patently ridiculous right now.

Indeed, notice that the basis for much of the right's criticism of the administration right now is, paradoxically, the sense that the government isn't doing enough. This from the crowd that doesn't want government doing much of anything, ever.

Conservatives, then, are learning all the wrong lessons. It's not the first time, and it probably won't be the last.

Greg Sargent:

* It's the deregulation, stupid: One of the outstanding questions about Obama's handling of the spill has been whether he'd seize on it to make an aggressive case against the knee-jerk deregulatory ideology that ran rampant before he took office.

Now he's done that in an interview with Politico, taking direct aim at the hypocrisy of those who pose as anti-government diehards but are suddenly demanding a robust Federal response to the spill:

"I think it's fair to say, if six months ago, before this spill had happened, I had gone up to Congress and I had said we need to crack down a lot harder on oil companies and we need to spend more money on technology to respond in case of a catastrophic spill, there are folks up there, who will not be named, who would have said this is classic, big-government overregulation and wasteful spending."...

"Some of the same people who are saying the president needs to show leadership and solve this problem are some of the same folks who, just a few months ago, were saying this guy is trying to engineer a takeover of our society through the federal government that is going to restrict our freedoms."

The problem for Obama, of course, is that the perception of government impotence in the face of the spill risks undercutting Obama's larger project of restoring public trust in government's competence.

It's an interesting paradox: Even as the spill's destruction dramatically illustrates the need for more robust Federal regulation, the government's inability to respond effectively to the spill now that it's in motion risks undermining his larger effort to move the debate in the right direction. Polls show very low confidence in the government's handling of the spill.

One can only hope the public realizes that the inability to halt the spill shouldn't have any bearing on the argument over whether more Federal regulation, and real Federal energy reform, are required to prevent such disasters in the future.

* Senator Bill Nelson, for one, is not satisfied: He wants to know who's in charge of the cleanup.

* Michael Crowley on why the Gulf spill may not trigger a major shift in the conversation: We're stuck in a recession, and Big Oil still holds vast sway over our economy.

Benen: IS THE GOP AFRAID TO GOVERN?

In April, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-Texas) was speculating about his expectations for the midterm elections. With Republican hopes sky-high, Sessions said anything less than a GOP takeover of the House is worth "a warm bucket of spit."

The message has changed quite a bit since April.

Last month, NRCC Recruitment Chair Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) said that some leading Republicans have told him privately that they want to make gains -- but not enough to actually get a majority. This attitude is apparently more widespread than I'd expected.

Republicans have been engaging in some premature drape-measuring for a few months in anticipation of winning back control of the House of Representatives. Some top GOP aides privately admit that they got ahead of themselves.

Turns out, not all Republicans are rooting for their own to win the House.

"I want Republicans to make massive gains but I want them to fall one vote short of taking the House," said Ari Fleischer, White House press secretary to President George W. Bush. "I want to see more evidence that Republicans are ready to govern. I want to see more substance, particularly on what spending they will cut."

Rep. Kevin McCarthy, the California Republican who has been tasked with recruiting candidates by House Minority Leader John Boehner, confirmed that this view is held by numerous party operatives and leaders, though none in Congress.

There are apparently a variety of factors driving this motivation -- including the notion that President Obama would be more likely to win a second term if he ran against a GOP House -- but the core concern seems to be that governing next year will be hard, and their proposed cuts might spark a backlash, so Republicans might as well let Dems worry about doing the heavy lifting.

DNC spokesperson Hari Sevugan said fear of holding the House is a sign that "Republicans aren't interested producing solutions to America's problems."

I think this truth was already apparent, but I suppose it's helpful to have another reminder.

Sargent: Senate Dems to BP: $20 billion escrow fund NOW

As you know, President Obama is ratcheting up the pressure on BP by demanding that BP create an independently-monitored escrow fund to handle claims by people and businesses affected by the Gulf disaster. The White House hasn't named a specific figure, beyond saying it wants a "substantial" sum put in the account.

What's getting less attention is that virtually the entire Senate Dem caucus has thrown its weight behind this demand, and has named a figure: $20 billion.

Senate Dems have sent a harshly-worded letter to BP execs demanding the money, and note the barb directed at BP over its public relations push:

In order to ensure BP fully and quickly covers the costs of this disaster, we are calling on BP to immediately establish a special account of $20 billion, administered by an independent trustee, to be used for payment of economic damages and clean-up costs. Establishment of this account would serve as an act of good faith and as a first step towards ensuring that there will be no delay in payments or attempt to evade responsibility for damages. Although creating this account at this level in no way limits BP's liability, we believe it will do more to improve BP's public image than the costly public relations campaign your company has launched.

We appreciate your interest in fully and quickly reimbursing those who have been injured by your actions. We believe the establishment of the $20 billion account to compensate victims and provide for clean-up is a useful first step for demonstrating that BP intends to meet its commitments. In light of the urgency of this matter we ask the courtesy of your response no later than June 18, 2010.

The letter is signed by virtually the entire Dem caucus. It's a sign that Dems -- perhaps belatedly -- are displaying some real anger here and are keeping the spotlight on BP and the need to hold it accountable.

The House GOP leadership has now endorsed lifting the liability cap, but Republicans have repeatedly blocked efforts to lift it in the Senate. Dem Senate leaders, it seems, recognize they have a winning issue on their hands and intend to press the point.

Wednesday, June 9, 2010

A Nation of Children

Yglesias: This is the Sound of Hope Dying

Yesterday afternoon, Lindsay Graham confirmed that he’s bailing from efforts to pass a climate change bill. The odds weren’t looking good for this legislation, but now they’re hard to distinguish from zero. And the news gets worse after the midterms. Simply put, given the difficult nature of the problem and the regional considerations in play, you just can’t tackle climate change unless a substantial number of Republicans want to tackle climate change. In theory, this shouldn’t be impossible. There are three Republicans from liberal states in New England. And there are a bunch of Republicans from southwestern states with low carbon emissions and huge potential to generate low carbon energy. On top of that, you have Republicans from Gulf Coast states whose population should be intimately familiar by now with the ecological consequences of climate disruption and fossile fuel use.

But there’s no sign of any movement. And as Kate Sheppard observes, Graham himself can barely speak coherently on the subject:

I’m in the wing of the Republican Party that has no problem with trying to find ways to clean up our air. We can have a debate about global warming, and I’m not in the camp that believes man-made emissions are contributing overwhelmingly to global climate change, but I do believe the planet is heating up. But I am in the camp of believing that clean air is a noble purpose for every Republican to pursue. The key is to make it business friendly.

????????????????????

Paradoxically, the 111th Congress is going to go down in history as one of the most productive and consequential of all time, but also one that abjectly failed to confront the most important issue it faced. And by “Congress” I mean “Senate.”

Benen: LINDSEY GRAHAM PULLS AWAY THE FOOTBALL, AGAIN

For the better part of a year, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) worked with Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) on a comprehensive climate/energy bill. It was poised to be a pretty strong package, that struck a grand bargain between parties and interests. The result would be a tri-partisan bill that would combat global warming, create new jobs in a growing industry, and reduce the deficit.

But like Lucy, who always pulls away the football and puts Charlie Brown on his ass, Graham has a nasty habit of betrayal.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., [yesterday] said he would vote against a climate change strategy he helped develop with Sens. John Kerry, D-Mass., and Joe Lieberman, D-Conn., citing new changes that further restrict offshore oil and gas drilling and the bill's impact on the transportation sector.

He said neither that plan nor any energy and climate strategy will get 60 Senate votes this year. Instead, he said, lawmakers next year should work on a strategy that only places a cap on electric utilities while lowering emissions from the transportation sector through increased fuel efficiency and other means that do not involve placing a cap on the sector's carbon emissions.

Graham said his advice to lawmakers is to "start over and scale down your ambitions." ... The statement today is the furthest Graham has gone in divorcing himself from the substance and timing of the efforts of Kerry, Lieberman and other Democrats to pass climate and energy policy this year.

Graham added that the BP oil spill disaster makes this a bad time for policymakers to tackle energy policy. Try to wrap your head around that one.

When Graham first started moving away from his own bill a couple of months ago, plenty of smart, credible observers seemed to think the South Carolinian was still working in good faith, and was arguing from a reasonable position. I disagreed. Yesterday, these observers started coming around -- Jon Chait, for example, said he "greatly overestimated" Lindsey Graham's "sincerity."

Let this be a lesson to all of us: if something important needs to get done, and it's entirely dependent on Graham working seriously towards a policy goal in good faith, prepare to be sorely disappointed.

At this point, Graham is objecting to energy policy provisions he helped write, and his comments on the kind of proposal he'd like to see are bordering on gibberish. Either Graham has no idea what he's talking about after spending months crafting a comprehensive bill, or he's just wildly spinning a ridiculous rationalization for abandoning his own effort.

The consequences of Graham's betrayal are severe. As the need for a comprehensive climate/energy bill becomes overwhelmingly obvious, a Republican filibuster will likely kill all legislative attempts. With Dems likely to lose seats in November, the next attempt to pass meaningful legislation is likely several years away.

It's very hard to be even a little optimistic under the circumstances.

Ezra Klein: Lindsey Graham and the failure of the 'lone Republican' theory

With Lindsey Graham bolting a bill he helped draft, efforts to address climate change in this Congress look likely to fail. And because the next Congress is likely to have more Republicans, and because the House's approval of Waxman-Markey will expire after the election and mean the House would have to write and pass a whole new bill, the situation looks grim going forward, too.

This is, understandably, causing many enviros to wonder whether Graham was ever committed to the effort. Brad Plumer, who's as fair-minded and unexcitable on these questions as they come, calls Graham's stated objections "ridiculous" and says "this whole episode really makes you wonder if Graham was ever serious about energy and climate policy in the first place."

My take, from previous conversations with Graham, his staff, and other Senate offices that were working with them, is that Graham was serious about doing this if he thought it could be done. But when he made the judgment that a carbon-pricing bill wasn't going to pass the Senate, that was also enough for him to decide that it was foolhardy to remain publicly committed to a position that's unpopular with his base. There was no middle ground in Graham's position: Either he could do this and he'd be there or he couldn't and he wouldn't. He clearly came down on the latter side. So rather than stick with the effort and give a long-shot campaign the best chance it could have, Graham is abandoning it and probably sticking the final nail in its coffin.

It's further evidence that the "lone Republican" strategy doesn't work. Time and again, Democrats have ended up in a room with a single Republican who seemed willing to cut a deal. It was Olympia Snowe on health care, Bob Corker on financial regulation and Lindsey Graham on climate change. In every case, the final bill looked a lot like what that Republican helped negotiate. And in every single case, the Republican realized that he or she couldn't get more support from their party and so they eventually bolted the effort.

If you think this has all been a cynical strategy, it's been brilliantly successful. On the one hand, Republicans have had a major role in shaping these bills. On the other hand, they haven't had to vote for these bills, and so they could cleanly campaign against legislation that a member of their party helped write. And as an added bonus, Democrats are stuck trying to defend a bill that their base doesn't like very much and that's thick with compromises that annoy political elites.

Kevin Drum: R.I.P. Climate Legislation

Today probably marks the official death of climate legislation in the United States. Lindsey Graham, the only Republican even nominally favorable toward any kind of carbon pricing plan, has announced that he can't support the Kerry-Lieberman bill because it doesn't allow enough offshore drilling (!), and without Graham there's pretty much zero chance of getting any further Republican support. So the odds of passing climate legislation, already slim, have now dropped to zero. The only option left is a pure energy bill, something that accomplishes very little, and accomplishes that little solely by offering up subsidies to every special interest you can imagine.

By coincidence, Stanford researcher Jon Krosnick has an op-ed in the New York Times today that suggests this is exactly what the American public wants:

When respondents were asked if they thought that the earth’s temperature probably had been heating up over the last 100 years, 74 percent answered affirmatively. And 75 percent of respondents said that human behavior was substantially responsible for any warming that has occurred.

....Fully 86 percent of our respondents said they wanted the federal government to limit the amount of air pollution that businesses emit, and 76 percent favored government limiting business’s emissions of greenhouse gases in particular. Not a majority of 55 or 60 percent — but 76 percent.

Large majorities opposed taxes on electricity (78 percent) and gasoline (72 percent) to reduce consumption. But 84 percent favored the federal government offering tax breaks to encourage utilities to make more electricity from water, wind and solar power. And huge majorities favored government requiring, or offering tax breaks to encourage, each of the following: manufacturing cars that use less gasoline (81 percent); manufacturing appliances that use less electricity (80 percent); and building homes and office buildings that require less energy to heat and cool (80 percent).

So there you have it: the American public believes in global warming and wants the government to do something about it. However, the American public doesn't want to do anything — carbon taxes or cap-and-trade — that might actually work. But they do want to open the federal goody bag and dole out subsidies and tax breaks to everyone under the sun, presumably because these all sound like pleasant things to do and they're under the impression that they're all "free." Whether they work or not isn't really on their radar.

And it looks like that's what Congress is going to deliver. We are, in this case, getting exactly the government we deserve. A government of children.1

1Yes, I'm feeling bitter about this at the moment. Anyone have a problem with that?

Financial Follies

Think Progress: Trumka: Lawmakers Worried More About The Deficit Than Jobs ‘Have Been Reading Too Much Fiction’

Before it adjourned for its Memorial Day recess, the House of Representatives passed a scaled down tax extenders bill, that didn’t include extensions of COBRA health insurance subsidies for unemployed workers, or an extension of FMAP funding to help states meet their Medicaid responsibilities. The bill also only extended unemployment benefits through November, instead of December as had been originally planned.

Despite 9.7 percent unemployment, and long-term unemployment at record highs, the bill was cut down because of concerns regarding its effect on the deficit, as only part of it was offset by revenue raisers. A group of Blue Dogs and freshman Democrats, as well as lockstep Republican opposition, helped to produce legislation with significantly less impact.

Today, ThinkProgress posed a couple of questions regarding such deficit hysteria to AFL-CIO President Richard Trumka, who appeared at the America’s Future Now conference to advocate more robust job creation measures from Congress. Trumka said that those more concerned with the deficit than the fact that 15 million Americans are currently out of work have “been reading too much fiction or they have their head in the sand”:

We do not have a short-term deficit crisis, we have a short-term jobs crisis in this country. And anyone that doesn’t believe that has either, I think, been reading too much fiction or they have their head in the sand. Every economist I know says we have a jobs crisis, and yet the people on [Capitol] Hill say we can’t really fix the crisis, we have to worry about deficit reduction.

Watch it:

Later on, when ThinkProgress asked why Washington is so focused on deficits when the country is much more concerned with unemployment, Trumka blamed “timid leadership. Timid leadership gets any kind of pushback, they say we’ll stop. What they need to do is stand up and explain that if you really want to cure deficits, put people back to work.”

It’s true that short-term concern over the deficit and favoring deficit reduction over job creation is counterproductive. As CAP’s Michael Ettlinger and Michael Linden wrote, in the face of the Great Recession, short-term deficits “are both inevitable and highly appropriate at a time when the economy is weak.”

It should also be noted that, according to a recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal Poll, Americans do not prioritize deficit reduction over job creation. Only 5 percent of respondents to the poll cited it as their top concern, while 35 percent said job creation is the most important policy priority of theirs.

Brad DeLong:

We need bigger deficits.

As the disappointing May job numbers confirm, this is still an exceptional time—a time in which many of the normal rules of the Dismal Science are changed and transformed. It is a time for not normal economics but rather "depression economics." The terms on which the U.S. government can borrow now are exceptionally advantageous. And because of high unemployment the benefits of boosting government purchases and cutting taxes right now are exceptionally large.

Krugman: The Seductiveness Of Demands For Pain

Mark Thoma is astonished at Raghuram Rajan’s obviously intense desire to find some argument, any argument, for raising interest rates even though unemployment is near 10 percent. As he points out, Rajan is reduced to arguing that the Fed should raise rates because unemployment is low in Brazil.

But I realized, as I read this, that I’d seen something like this before. Back in the summer of 2008, as the world was sliding into recession, Ken Rogoff demanded that the Fed and the ECB raise rates because of rising commodity prices and inflationary pressure in developing countries. Again, it was very hard to understand what model lay behind the demand.

And let me throw Jeff Sachs into the mix. Brad DeLong is astonished by the recent Sachs op-ed calling for fiscal austerity now now now, in which he claims that fiscal expansion has had all sorts of negative effects that are, in fact, completely absent from the data.

What’s going on here? I don’t think you can resort to class-warfare arguments. What I think is happening is that we’re seeing the deep seductiveness, for many economists (and others), of taking what sounds like a tough-minded position in favor of inflicting pain on the economy — and the people who make up that economy.

Keynes knew all about this. Writing about the peculiar appeal of classical economics even in a world in which it had manifestly failed, he argued

That it reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect, added, I suppose, to its intellectual prestige. That its teaching, translated into practice, was austere and often unpalatable, lent it virtue.

Something like that, I believe, is going on here. Calling for austerity and tight money feels courageous, tough-minded, and virtuous; it allows the economist making such calls to take the pose of a Serious Person standing firm against the easy-money guys.

Yes, I know that’s insulting. But what’s so striking is that in all three cases I’ve cited you had highly trained economists — that is, people who have spent their whole lives arguing in terms of carefully laid out models — making arguments that aren’t backed by any model I can see.

And may I say, I think that by giving in to the seductiveness of calls for pain, some of my colleagues are doing a lot of damage; at a time when we really need clarity of thought, they’re adding to the intellectual murk instead.


Booman: Stupid Punditry
You gotta love Fred Barnes:

In Washington these days, President Obama is rumored to be hoping Republicans capture the House of Representatives in the midterm election in November. There's no evidence for this speculation, so far as I know, but it's hardly far-fetched. If Mr. Obama wants to avert a fiscal crisis and win re-election in 2012, he needs House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to be removed from her powerful post. A GOP takeover may be the only way.

To say there is no evidence for this speculation is an understatement. The president has had no success in working with House Republicans on any measure over the last year and a half and his agenda would be completely blocked if he had to deal with a Speaker Boehner and a bunch of Republican committee chairs.

As it is, he is finding Congress unwilling to add sufficient stimulus or even pass a budget. What the president needs above all is for the voters to defy expectations and return huge Democratic majorities to Congress. That is the only way he can break the logjam in Washington and take on big issues.

Krugman: Madmen in Authority

Rereading my post on the folly of the G20, it seems to me that I didn’t fully convey just how crazy the demand for fiscal austerity now now now really is.

The key thing you need to realize is that eliminating stimulus spending, while it would inflict severe economic harm, would do almost nothing to reduce future debt problems. Here’s the IMF’s estimate of sources of the growth in debt over the next few years:

DESCRIPTIONIMF

And even this figure conveys a misleading impression of the importance of stimulus spending. First, since cutting stimulus would weaken the economy, it would reduce revenues — that is, a substantial part of the debt growth the IMF attributes to stimulus would have happened even without stimulus, through lower revenue. Second, for the US at least the core reason for long-run budget concern is rising health care costs — in fact, health cost control is the sine qua non of long-run solvency — which has nothing whatever to do with how much we spend on job creation now.

So how much we spend on supporting the economy in 2010 and 2011 is almost irrelevant to the fundamental budget picture. Why, then, are Very Serious People demanding immediate fiscal austerity?

The answer is, to reassure the markets — because the markets supposedly won’t believe in the willingness of governments to engage in long-run fiscal reform unless they inflict pointless pain right now. To repeat: the whole argument rests on the presumption that markets will turn on us unless we demonstrate a willingness to suffer, even though that suffering serves no purpose.

And the basis for this belief that this is what markets demand is … well, actually there’s no sign that markets are demanding any such thing. There’s Greece — but the Greek situation is very different from that of the US or the UK. And at the moment everyone except the overvalued euro-periphery nations is able to borrow at very low interest rates.

So wise policy, as defined by the G20 and like-minded others, consists of destroying economic recovery in order to satisfy hypothetical irrational demands from the markets — demands that economies suffer pointless pain to show their determination, demands that markets aren’t actually making, but which serious people, in their wisdom, believe that the markets will make one of these days.

Awesome.

Yglesias The No-Stimulus Economy

If fiscal stimulus is so great, then why hasn’t the Obama administration’s massive stimulus program helped improve the economy? Well, via Mark Thoma, the answer is that there hasn’t been any net fiscal stimulus, all the Obama administration’s efforts plus the automatic stabilizers have done is mitigate the contractionary impact of state and local policy:

But it’s important to remember that the proper measure for fiscal stimulus is not spending by the federal government; it is spending by all levels of government. And when you look at the contributions to US GDP growth (Table 1.1.2 at the BEA site), total government spending has been a drag on growth over the past two quarters. The increases at the federal level have not been enough to compensate for the spending cuts at the local and state levels.

And with another hat tip to Thoma, here’s a look at cuts in state and local payrolls:

State-local 1

Looked at comprehensively, what the country has been implementing is a mild version of the conservative policy prescription for boosting growth—fire bureaucrats and trim spending. And it’s not working very well. And with continuing economic weakness, state and local governments are set for further trimming even as federal stimulus winds down. This is going to be a disaster. Nothing about having economically pressed jurisdictions lay off huge quantities of teachers is going to improve the situation.

Punching Your Friends.

Jed Lewinson (DKos): AR-Sen: In Pyrrhic victory, White House attacks labor

For some reason, a foolish White House aide decided to celebrate Blanche Lincoln's narrow primary victory by slamming organized labor -- and by extension the netroots and the entire progressive movement. Speaking to Politico's Ben Smith, the White House aide said: "Organized labor just flushed $10 million of their members' money down the toiled."

That aide is obviously a coward for hiding behind the shield of anonymity. Moreover, whoever it is doesn't have a good political sense. Anyone who thinks Blanche Lincoln has a shot at re-election is a fool. Bill Halter was the only chance at winning that seat in Arkansas, and they spent millions to defeat him.

As Sam Seder tweeted:

and when Blanche loses? MT @benpolitico Sr. WH Official: Labor just flushed 10 mil of its members $ down the toilet in a pointless exercise

And Ezra Klein too:

For a WH that prizes discipline and dislikes drama, some "Senior WH official" is sure shooting off to @marcambinder and @benpolitico

More Ezra:

@benpolitico A few more statements like that one, and bet Labor will launch some more "pointless exercises."

Not to be outdone, the response of the AFL-CIO is a keeper:

AFL to White House: 'Labor isn't an arm of the Democratic Party'

The major labor federation AFL-CIO took sharp objection tonight to a White House official's assessment that they'd "flushed $10 million of their members' money down the toilet" in the "pointless exercise" of supporting the failed bid of Bill Halter to unseat Senator Blanche Lincoln.

"If that's their take on this, then they severely misread how the electorate feels and how we're running our political program. When we say we're only going to support elected officials who support our issues," said AFL-CIO spokesman Eddie Vale. "When they say we should have targeted our money among some key house races among Blue Dog Democrats --that ain't happening."

"Labor isn't an arm of the Democratic Party," Vale said. "It exists to suport working families. And that's what we said tonight, and that's what we're gong to keep saying."

I'll bet some people in the White House understand what's going on here, but whoever this senior official is has no clue about what's happening outside of the beltway. Time after time, the same White House aides make boneheaded, stupid political decisions that cost the President both popularity and political strength, in the process weakening and undermining the Democratic coalition. Instead of taking potshots at their supposed allies, maybe they should spend some time listening to the voices they hate, for example Greg Sargent's take on Lincoln's narrow win.

Blanche Lincoln's victory will be widely painted as a crushing loss for the left. Labor poured a huge amount of cash into the race, and there's no quibbling with the fact that this is a disappointing defeat.

But make no mistake: Progressive activists and labor mounted a challenge that was barely months in the making, and rallying behind Bill Halter, came within a hair of unseating a longtime incumbent who had the backing of the entire Dem establishment and the two most recent Dem presidents.

No matter what you read about this, the Halter challenge was a show of force by the left. Period. If you don't belive that, ask yourself why Lincoln suddenly found herself backing a tough-on-derivatives proposal in the Senate, why Obama had to cut radio ads and robocalls to save Lincoln, and why Bill Clinton had to come into the state to instruct voters not to listen to unions in order to save Lincoln's hide.

It remains to be seen who on the left will lift a finger to help Lincoln from here on out. More on this tomorrow, but for now, it's clear that the Dem establishment threw its weight behind a candidate who polls show is less likely to win the general election -- and Dems may have just lost themselves a Senate seat.

Whoever this aide is feels like he or she is king or queen of the world. Well, you know what? You're not God. You don't own this nation. We do. This is a government of the people. Not of senior White House officials. Not of lifelong DC hacks. And we're never going to let you forget that.

kos: AR-Sen: postscript

Jed already has a good take on the race, but I'll add a few thoughts:

  • The GOP establishment tries to nominate electable candidates, and gets sabotaged by the teabaggers. We're trying to nominate electable candidates, and we get sabotaged by the Democratic Party establishment. We won in Pennsylvania, lost in Arkansas. You can't win them all. But make no mistake -- we made the politically smart move.
  • Unfortunately, the smart political move lost. So say hello to Sen. John Boozman, the next senator from the great state of Arkansas. It's the political reality. No need to sugarcoat it.
  • How much do you think the Chamber of Commerce and its corporatist allies will spend on behalf of Blanche Lincoln through the fall? Zero. Suddenly, you're going to see Lincoln quite friendless.

    Those evil "out of state" unions and progressive groups sure won't lift a finger to help her. The only question is how much the DSCC wastes on the losing effort.

  • I've long since quit being impressed by moral victories. In this case, we forced Blanche to dramatically improve the financial reform bill, and it may be too late to strip out her derivatives reform language. And we delivered the kind of pain that no other incumbent wants to suffer. So congressional Democrats have two options -- they can either shape up and be spared primary pain (I'd be happy focusing solely on Joe Lieberman in 2012), or they can be Blanched.

    It's much easier to keep your job if you don't have to fight for it twice in a single year.

Greg Sargent:
8:46 p.m.: Random question of the night: Why are Blanche Lincoln's travails constantly seen as flowing from generic anti-incumbent sentiment, rather than as the result of a challenge from the left? When Tea Party candidates threaten Republicans it's accurately described as a challenge from the right....

Friday, June 4, 2010

Simply Bizarre.

John R
Well I am certainly glad he is a Republican. At least we won't have to hear about any of this distasteful stuff from the MSM. Up next , Why isn't Obama angry? Senator John McCain joins us to explain the finer points of loosing your temper in public.
Benen: KIRK FINDS EVEN MORE TO APOLOGIZE FOR
The good news is, Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk of Illinois finally apologized yesterday for a series of highly misleading claims about his military service. Coming down with a sudden case of Bush-itis, Kirk added, "I simply misremembered it wrong."

The bad news is, the list of instances in which Kirk "misremembered" his service record managed to get even longer.

In a new disclosure, Kirk acknowledged that his campaign's promotion of him coming under fire while flying aboard an intelligence reconnaissance plane in Iraq may not be correct because there is no record of whether his aircraft was being fired upon.

But it wasn't just campaign promotional materials that got it wrong. In 2003, as a member of Congress, Kirk told his colleagues, "I just returned from Iraq and the trend is for the better. The last time I was in Iraq, I was in uniform flying at 20,000 feet and the Iraqi Air Defense network was shooting at us."

In his new account, Kirk said he does not recall coming under enemy fire and there is no record to back up his 2003 claim.

The Chicago Tribune added, "Kirk also said last year that he once saw anti-aircraft flack when flying an intelligence mission over Kosovo and thought he might be killed." Whether this incident occurred in reality is also unclear.

The Illinois Republican also exaggerated his service record in a letter to a constituent, claiming to be "a veteran of the Desert Storm and Enduring Freedom missions," which isn't quite right, either.

At this point, it's genuinely difficult to keep track of all of Kirk's claims about his service record that have been proven false. Let's see if I have them all: Kirk (1) falsely claimed he served "in" Operation Iraqi Freedom; (2) falsely claimed to "command the war room in the Pentagon"; (3) falsely claimed to have won the U.S. Navy's Intelligence Officer of the Year award; (4) falsely claimed to have been shot at by the Iraqi Air Defense network; (5) falsely claimed to be a veteran of Desert Storm; and (6) falsely claimed to be the only lawmaker to serve during Operation Iraqi Freedom. There may very well be other instances, but these six are confirmed.

A misstatement or two can be embarrassing, but understandable. Kirk seems to have established a lengthy pattern of exaggerating his service record in a way that appears intended to deceive the public. Given that he served honorably, there's no reason for such wild embellishments.

In other words, Kirk is repeating falsehoods when the truth would be just as good. It's bizarre.

Greg Sargent

* Sorry Mr. President, your latest display of anger about the Gulf spill, in a new interview with Larry King, just won't cut it:

"I am furious at this entire situation," he said. "Somebody didn't think through the consequences of their actions and it is imperiling not just a handful of people. This is imperiling an entire way of life and an entire region for potentially years."

Has BP felt his anger?

"They have felt the anger," he said.

Nope, it's not good enough for you to say you're furious, Mr. President. Kick something. Smash a camera with your bare hands. Vulcan Death Grip rhetoric just won't do.

* And this line from Obama, in the same interview, is really problematic:

"This isn't about me and how angry I am. It's about the people down in the Gulf and how they were impacted."

Actually, it is all about how angry you are, Mr. President. Haven't you figured that out yet?

* Steve Benen argues, rightly I think, that Obama's speech yesterday contrasting Dem and GOP visions of government was far more significant than the media has allowed.

Greg Sargent

* There's no getting around the fact that the public is unhappy with Obama's handling of the Gulf spill: A new CBS poll finds that nearly two thirds of Americans want Obama to be doing more.

* Which prompts the question o' the day: Is it possible the public is unhappy with the substance of his response, which has faced plenty of legitimate criticism, as opposed to the theatrics of it? More on this later.

* Obama finally cancels his trip to Indonesia, presumably to focus on the spill. But is he apoplectic yet, or merely just furious?

* And he's heading to the Gulf today. Mr. President, please kneel down on the Gulf shore and beat your breast for a full five minutes. Then Maureen Dowd and I will decree whether the public thinks you've emoted sufficiently yet.

* If you don't want to listen to me about this, listen to Ruth Marcus, who tries to talk some sense into pundit colleages demanding that Obama play "angry daddy."


Bernstein: Scandal!

Ezra Klein returns from China to find a puzzling kerfuffle over the Sestak thing, and asks:

So what's going on? Are people just pretending to be offended?
Short answer: yes, people are just pretending to be offended. That's what's going on.

See a related post from Conor Friedersdorf.

Longer answer: the US has a disconnect between a political system based on parties, bargaining, deal-making, logrolling, and, more broadly, (self-) interested people and groups finding ways to work things out with each other, and a political culture that has quite a bit of disdain for all those things. See, for example, Mr. Smith Goes to Washington, and the dozens of movies and TV shows that have followed, all built around the idea that parties are bad, interest groups are bad, cutting deals is bad, and the only hope for democracy are radically independent people with pure motives who alone have access to what constitutes good policy. Thanks to that disconnect, there are always plenty of perfectly ordinary things that pols do in the perfectly ordinary course of their jobs that can easily be sold to many reporters as corrupt.

Just watch it.

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